A New Model Using Routinely Available Clinical Parameters to Predict Significant Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B

Wai-Kay Seto, Chun-Fan Lee, Ching-Lung Lai, Philip P C Ip, Daniel Yee-Tak Fong, James Fung, Danny Ka-Ho Wong and Man-Fung Yuen

PLOS ONE, 2011, vol. 6, issue 8, 1-7

Abstract: Objective: We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) based on routinely available clinical parameters. Methods: 237 treatment-naïve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108) and validation group (n = 129). Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed. Results: Based on 12 available clinical parameters (age, sex, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and AFP), a model to predict significant liver fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score ≥3) was derived using the five best parameters (age, ALP, AST, AFP and platelet). Using the formula log(index+1) = 0.025+0.0031(age)+0.1483 log(ALP)+0.004 log(AST)+0.0908 log(AFP+1)−0.028 log(platelet), the PAPAS (Platelet/Age/Phosphatase/AFP/AST) index predicts significant fibrosis with an area under the receiving operating characteristics (AUROC) curve of 0.776 [0.797 for patients with ALT

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0023077

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0023077

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