Presenting the Uncertainties of Odds Ratios Using Empirical-Bayes Prediction Intervals

Wan-Yu Lin and Wen-Chung Lee

PLOS ONE, 2012, vol. 7, issue 2, 1-7

Abstract: Quantifying exposure-disease associations is a central issue in epidemiology. Researchers of a study often present an odds ratio (or a logarithm of odds ratio, logOR) estimate together with its confidence interval (CI), for each exposure they examined. Here the authors advocate using the empirical-Bayes-based ‘prediction intervals’ (PIs) to bound the uncertainty of logORs. The PI approach is applicable to a panel of factors believed to be exchangeable (no extra information, other than the data itself, is available to distinguish some logORs from the others). The authors demonstrate its use in a genetic epidemiological study on age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The proposed PIs can enjoy straightforward probabilistic interpretations—a 95% PI has a probability of 0.95 to encompass the true value, and the expected number of true values that are being encompassed is for a total of 95% PIs. The PI approach is theoretically more efficient (producing shorter intervals) than the traditional CI approach. In the AMD data, the average efficiency gain is 51.2%. The PI approach is advocated to present the uncertainties of many logORs in a study, for its straightforward probabilistic interpretations and higher efficiency while maintaining the nominal coverage probability.

Date: 2012
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0032022 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 32022&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0032022

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032022

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().