Predicting Pedestrian Flow: A Methodology and a Proof of Concept Based on Real-Life Data

Maria Davidich and Gerta Köster

PLOS ONE, 2013, vol. 8, issue 12, 1-11

Abstract: Building a reliable predictive model of pedestrian motion is very challenging: Ideally, such models should be based on observations made in both controlled experiments and in real-world environments. De facto, models are rarely based on real-world observations due to the lack of available data; instead, they are largely based on intuition and, at best, literature values and laboratory experiments. Such an approach is insufficient for reliable simulations of complex real-life scenarios: For instance, our analysis of pedestrian motion under natural conditions at a major German railway station reveals that the values for free-flow velocities and the flow-density relationship differ significantly from widely used literature values. It is thus necessary to calibrate and validate the model against relevant real-life data to make it capable of reproducing and predicting real-life scenarios. In this work we aim at constructing such realistic pedestrian stream simulation. Based on the analysis of real-life data, we present a methodology that identifies key parameters and interdependencies that enable us to properly calibrate the model. The success of the approach is demonstrated for a benchmark model, a cellular automaton. We show that the proposed approach significantly improves the reliability of the simulation and hence the potential prediction accuracy. The simulation is validated by comparing the local density evolution of the measured data to that of the simulated data. We find that for our model the most sensitive parameters are: the source-target distribution of the pedestrian trajectories, the schedule of pedestrian appearances in the scenario and the mean free-flow velocity. Our results emphasize the need for real-life data extraction and analysis to enable predictive simulations.

Date: 2013
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0083355 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 83355&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0083355

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0083355

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone (plosone@plos.org).