Seasonal Predictability of the East Atlantic Pattern from Sea Surface Temperatures

Isabel Iglesias, María N Lorenzo and Juan J Taboada

PLOS ONE, 2014, vol. 9, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950–2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.

Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0086439

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086439

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