Improving the Degree-Day Model for Forecasting Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen) (Orthoptera: Acridoidea)

Xiongbing Tu, Zhihong Li, Jie Wang, Xunbing Huang, Jiwen Yang, Chunbin Fan, Huihui Wu, Qinglei Wang and Zehua Zhang

PLOS ONE, 2014, vol. 9, issue 3, 1-12

Abstract: The degree-day (DD) model is an important tool for forecasting pest phenology and voltinism. Unfortunately, the DD model is inaccurate, as is the case for the Oriental migratory locust. To improve the existing DD model for this pest, we first studied locust development in seven growth chambers, each of which simulated the complete growing-season climate of a specific region in China (Baiquan, Chengde, Tumotezuoqi, Wenan, Rongan, Qiongzhong, or Qiongshan). In these seven treatments, locusts completed 0.95, 1, 1.1, 2.2, 2.95, 3.95, and 4.95 generations, respectively. Hence, in the Baiquan (700), Rongan (2400), Qiongzhong (3200), and Qiongshan (2400) treatments, the final generation were unable to lay eggs. In a second experiment, we reared locusts for a full generation in growth chambers, at different constant temperatures. This experiment provided two important findings. First, temperatures between 32 and 42°C did not influence locust development rate. Hence, the additional heat provided by temperatures above 32°C did not add to the total heat units acquired by the insects, according to the traditional DD model. Instead, temperatures above 32°C represent overflow heat, and can not be included when calculating total heat acquired during development. We also noted that females raised at constant 21°C failed to oviposit. Hence, temperatures lower than 21°C should be deducted when calculating total heat acquired during adult development. Using our experimental findings, we next micmiked 24-h temperature curve and constructed a new DD model based on a 24-h temperature integral calculation. We then compared our new model with the traditional DD model, results showed the DD deviation was 166 heat units in Langfang during 2011. At last we recalculated the heat by our new DD model, which better predicted the results from our first growth chamber experiment.

Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0089523

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089523

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