Estimating Demand for Industrial and Commercial Land Use Given Economic Forecasts
Filipe Batista e Silva,
Eric Koomen (),
Vasco Diogo and
PLOS ONE, 2014, vol. 9, issue 3, 1-14
Current developments in the field of land use modelling point towards greater level of spatial and thematic resolution and the possibility to model large geographical extents. Improvements are taking place as computational capabilities increase and socioeconomic and environmental data are produced with sufficient detail. Integrated approaches to land use modelling rely on the development of interfaces with specialized models from fields like economy, hydrology, and agriculture. Impact assessment of scenarios/policies at various geographical scales can particularly benefit from these advances. A comprehensive land use modelling framework includes necessarily both the estimation of the quantity and the spatial allocation of land uses within a given timeframe. In this paper, we seek to establish straightforward methods to estimate demand for industrial and commercial land uses that can be used in the context of land use modelling, in particular for applications at continental scale, where the unavailability of data is often a major constraint. We propose a set of approaches based on ‘land use intensity’ measures indicating the amount of economic output per existing areal unit of land use. A base model was designed to estimate land demand based on regional-specific land use intensities; in addition, variants accounting for sectoral differences in land use intensity were introduced. A validation was carried out for a set of European countries by estimating land use for 2006 and comparing it to observations. The models’ results were compared with estimations generated using the ‘null model’ (no land use change) and simple trend extrapolations. Results indicate that the proposed approaches clearly outperformed the ‘null model’, but did not consistently outperform the linear extrapolation. An uncertainty analysis further revealed that the models’ performances are particularly sensitive to the quality of the input land use data. In addition, unknown future trends of regional land use intensity widen considerably the uncertainty bands of the predictions.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 91991&type=printable (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0091991
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().