Clinical Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis in Men Who Have Sex with Men: Risk Calculators for Real-World Decision-Making

Anders Chen and David W Dowdy

PLOS ONE, 2014, vol. 9, issue 10, 1-9

Abstract: Background: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be clinically effective and cost-effective for HIV prevention in high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). However, individual patients have different risk profiles, real-world populations vary, and no practical tools exist to guide clinical decisions or public health strategies. We introduce a practical model of HIV acquisition, including both a personalized risk calculator for clinical management and a cost-effectiveness calculator for population-level decisions. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model of PrEP for MSM. The primary clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness outcomes were the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one HIV infection, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We characterized patients according to risk factors including PrEP adherence, condom use, sexual frequency, background HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy use. Results: With standard PrEP adherence and national epidemiologic parameters, the estimated NNT was 64 (95% uncertainty range: 26, 176) at a cost of $160,000 (cost saving, $740,000) per QALY – comparable to other published models. With high (35%) HIV prevalence, the NNT was 35 (21, 57), and cost per QALY was $27,000 (cost saving, $160,000), and with high PrEP adherence, the NNT was 30 (14, 69), and cost per QALY was $3,000 (cost saving, $200,000). In contrast, for monogamous, serodiscordant relationships with partner antiretroviral therapy use, the NNT was 90 (39, 157) and cost per QALY was $280,000 ($14,000, $670,000). Conclusions: PrEP results vary widely across individuals and populations. Risk calculators may aid in patient education, clinical decision-making, and cost-effectiveness evaluation.

Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0108742

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108742

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