A New Scoring System for Spontaneous Closure Prediction of Perimembranous Ventricular Septal Defects in Children

Jing Sun, Kun Sun, Sun Chen, Liping Yao and Yuqi Zhang

PLOS ONE, 2014, vol. 9, issue 12, 1-14

Abstract: Background: Perimembranous ventricular septal defect (PMVSD) is a congenital heart aberration, which is surgically treated by patch or device closure, but also can heal without operation as spontaneous closure (SC). Methods: We analyzed data from 1873 PMVSD patients admitted to our hospital during September 2001 and December 2009, in order to establish a Cox regression model for PMVSD SC probability prediction (derivative cohort). Initial contact age, ventricular septal defect (VSD) diameter, shunt flow, aneurysmal tissue of the ventricular membranous septum (ATVMS) development, associated complications, and left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVDD) were analyzed for correlations with SC. The derived scoring system based on the coefficients of the model was developed and applied to another cohort with 382 PMVSD patients to evaluate the validity for SC probability forecast (validation cohort). Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that SC of PMVSD was associated with age at first contact, defect size, diffuse shunt flow, ATVMS formation, associated complication, as well as increased LVDD, which were used to establish a new scoring system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of our predictive scaling was 0.831 (95% CI 0.804–0.858, p

Date: 2014
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0113822 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 13822&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0113822

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113822

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().