Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations

Edwin C Yuan, David L Alderson, Sean Stromberg and Jean M Carlson

PLOS ONE, 2015, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-25

Abstract: Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case.

Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0115826

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0115826

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