Modeling and Predicting Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Trends Based on Meteorological Factors in Hu County, China

Dan Xiao, Kejian Wu, Xin Tan, Jing Le, Haitao Li, Yongping Yan and Zhikai Xu

PLOS ONE, 2015, vol. 10, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: Background: Hu County is a serious hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemic area, with notable fluctuation of the HFRS epidemic in recent years. This study aimed to explore the optimal model for HFRS epidemic prediction in Hu. Methods: Three models were constructed and compared, including a generalized linear model (GLM), a generalized additive model (GAM), and a principal components regression model (PCRM). The fitting and predictive adjusted R2 of each model were calculated. Ljung-Box Q tests for fitted and predicted residuals of each model were conducted. The study period was stratified into before (1971–1993) and after (1994–2012) vaccine implementation epochs to avoid the confounding factor of vaccination. Results: The autocorrelation of fitted and predicted residuals of the GAM in the two epochs were not significant (Ljung-Box Q test, P>.05). The adjusted R2 for the predictive abilities of the GLM, GAM, and PCRM were 0.752, 0.799, and 0.665 in the early epoch, and 0.669, 0.756, and 0.574 in the recent epoch. The adjusted R2 values of the three models were lower in the early epoch than in the recent epoch. Conclusions: GAM is superior to GLM and PCRM for monthly HFRS case number prediction in Hu County. A shift in model reliability coincident with vaccination implementation demonstrates the importance of vaccination in HFRS control and prevention.

Date: 2015
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0123166 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 23166&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0123166

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123166

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().