The Avalanche Hypothesis and Compression of Morbidity: Testing Assumptions through Cohort-Sequential Analysis

Jordan Silberman, Chun Wang, Shawn T Mason, Steven M Schwartz, Matthew Hall, Jason L Morrissette, Xin M Tu and Janet Greenhut

PLOS ONE, 2015, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Background: The compression of morbidity model posits a breakpoint in the adult lifespan that separates an initial period of relative health from a subsequent period of ever increasing morbidity. Researchers often assume that such a breakpoint exists; however, this assumption is hitherto untested. Purpose: To test the assumption that a breakpoint exists—which we term a morbidity tipping point—separating a period of relative health from a subsequent deterioration in health status. An analogous tipping point for healthcare costs was also investigated. Methods: Four years of adults’ (N = 55,550) morbidity and costs data were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected in Pittsburgh, PA between 2006 and 2009; analyses were performed in Rochester, NY and Ann Arbor, MI in 2012 and 2013. Cohort-sequential and hockey stick regression models were used to characterize long-term trajectories and tipping points, respectively, for both morbidity and costs. Results: Morbidity increased exponentially with age (P

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0123910

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123910

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