Visualizing Risk Prediction Models

Vanya Van Belle and Ben Van Calster

PLOS ONE, 2015, vol. 10, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: Objective: Risk prediction models can assist clinicians in making decisions. To boost the uptake of these models in clinical practice, it is important that end-users understand how the model works and can efficiently communicate its results. We introduce novel methods for interpretable model visualization. Methods: The proposed visualization techniques are applied to two prediction models from the Framingham Heart Study for the prediction of intermittent claudication and stroke after atrial fibrillation. We represent models using color bars, and visualize the risk estimation process for a specific patient using patient-specific contribution charts. Results: The color-based model representations provide users with an attractive tool to instantly gauge the relative importance of the predictors. The patient-specific representations allow users to understand the relative contribution of each predictor to the patient’s estimated risk, potentially providing insightful information on which to base further patient management. Extensions towards non-linear models and interactions are illustrated on an artificial dataset. Conclusion: The proposed methods summarize risk prediction models and risk predictions for specific patients in an alternative way. These representations may facilitate communication between clinicians and patients.

Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0132614 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 32614&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0132614

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132614

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().