Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago

Desarae Echevarria, Alexander Gutfraind, Basmattee Boodram, Marian Major, Sara Del Valle, Scott J Cotler and Harel Dahari

PLOS ONE, 2015, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-14

Abstract: Background/Aim: New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) provide an opportunity to combat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in persons who inject drugs (PWID). Here we use a mathematical model to predict the impact of a DAA-treatment scale-up on HCV prevalence among PWID and the estimated cost in metropolitan Chicago. Methods: To estimate the HCV antibody and HCV-RNA (chronic infection) prevalence among the metropolitan Chicago PWID population, we used empirical data from three large epidemiological studies. Cost of DAAs is assumed $50,000 per person. Results: Approximately 32,000 PWID reside in metropolitan Chicago with an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 47% or 15,040 cases. Approximately 22,000 PWID (69% of the total PWID population) attend harm reduction (HR) programs, such as syringe exchange programs, and have an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 30%. There are about 11,000 young PWID (

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0135901

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135901

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