Neural Network Prediction of ICU Length of Stay Following Cardiac Surgery Based on Pre-Incision Variables

Rocco J LaFaro, Suryanarayana Pothula, Keshar Paul Kubal, Mario Emil Inchiosa, Venu M Pothula, Stanley C Yuan, David A Maerz, Lucresia Montes, Stephen M Oleszkiewicz, Albert Yusupov, Richard Perline and Mario Anthony Inchiosa

PLOS ONE, 2015, vol. 10, issue 12, 1-19

Abstract: Background: Advanced predictive analytical techniques are being increasingly applied to clinical risk assessment. This study compared a neural network model to several other models in predicting the length of stay (LOS) in the cardiac surgical intensive care unit (ICU) based on pre-incision patient characteristics. Methods: Thirty six variables collected from 185 cardiac surgical patients were analyzed for contribution to ICU LOS. The Automatic Linear Modeling (ALM) module of IBM-SPSS software identified 8 factors with statistically significant associations with ICU LOS; these factors were also analyzed with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) module of the same software. The weighted contributions of each factor (“trained” data) were then applied to data for a “new” patient to predict ICU LOS for that individual. Results: Factors identified in the ALM model were: use of an intra-aortic balloon pump; O2 delivery index; age; use of positive cardiac inotropic agents; hematocrit; serum creatinine ≥ 1.3 mg/deciliter; gender; arterial pCO2. The r2 value for ALM prediction of ICU LOS in the initial (training) model was 0.356, p

Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0145395

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0145395

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