A mathematical model of aortic aneurysm formation

Wenrui Hao, Shihua Gong, Shuonan Wu, Jinchao Xu, Michael R Go, Avner Friedman and Dai Zhu

PLOS ONE, 2017, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a localized enlargement of the abdominal aorta, such that the diameter exceeds 3 cm. The natural history of AAA is progressive growth leading to rupture, an event that carries up to 90% risk of mortality. Hence there is a need to predict the growth of the diameter of the aorta based on the diameter of a patient’s aneurysm at initial screening and aided by non-invasive biomarkers. IL-6 is overexpressed in AAA and was suggested as a prognostic marker for the risk in AAA. The present paper develops a mathematical model which relates the growth of the abdominal aorta to the serum concentration of IL-6. Given the initial diameter of the aorta and the serum concentration of IL-6, the model predicts the growth of the diameter at subsequent times. Such a prediction can provide guidance to how closely the patient’s abdominal aorta should be monitored. The mathematical model is represented by a system of partial differential equations taking place in the aortic wall, where the media is assumed to have the constituency of an hyperelastic material.

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0170807

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170807

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