Predicting local malaria exposure using a Lasso-based two-level cross validation algorithm

Bienvenue Kouwaye, Fabrice Rossi, Noël Fonton, André Garcia, Simplice Dossou-Gbété, Mahouton Norbert Hounkonnou and Gilles Cottrell

PLOS ONE, 2017, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: Recent studies have highlighted the importance of local environmental factors to determine the fine-scale heterogeneity of malaria transmission and exposure to the vector. In this work, we compare a classical GLM model with backward selection with different versions of an automatic LASSO-based algorithm with 2-level cross-validation aiming to build a predictive model of the space and time dependent individual exposure to the malaria vector, using entomological and environmental data from a cohort study in Benin. Although the GLM can outperform the LASSO model with appropriate engineering, the best model in terms of predictive power was found to be the LASSO-based model. Our approach can be adapted to different topics and may therefore be helpful to address prediction issues in other health sciences domains.

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0187234

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187234

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