Stochastic modeling of influenza spread dynamics with recurrences

John Whitman and Ciriyam Jayaprakash

PLOS ONE, 2020, vol. 15, issue 4, 1-27

Abstract: We present results of a study of a simple, stochastic, agent-based model of influenza A infection, simulating its dynamics over the course of one flu season. Building on an early work of Bartlett, we define a model with a limited number of parameters and rates that have clear epidemiological interpretation and can be constrained by data. We demonstrate the occurrence of recurrent behavior in the infected number [more than one peak in a season], which is observed in data, in our simulations for populations consisting of cohorts with strong intra- and weak inter-cohort transmissibility. We examine the dependence of the results on epidemiological and population characteristics by investigating their dependence on a range of parameter values. Finally, we study infection with two strains of influenza, inspired by observations, and show a counter-intuitive result for the effect of inoculation against the strain that leads to the first wave of infection.

Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0231521

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231521

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