Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis

Ali Eshragh, Saed Alizamir, Peter Howley and Elizabeth Stojanovski

PLOS ONE, 2020, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-19

Abstract: The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The “partially-observable stochastic process” used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.

Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0240153

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240153

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