Individualized prediction of risk of ascending aortic syndromes

Qais Waleed Saleh, Axel Cosmus Pyndt Diederichsen and Jes Sanddal Lindholt

PLOS ONE, 2022, vol. 17, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: Objectives: Although ascending aortic diameter changes acutely after dissection, recommendation for prophylactic surgery of thoracic aortic aneurysms rely on data from dissected aortas. In this case-control study we aim to identify risk markers for acute and chronic aortic syndromes of the ascending aorta (ACAS-AA). Furthermore, to develop a predictive model for ACAS-AA. Methods: We collected data of 188 cases of ACAS-AA and 376 controls standardized to age- and sex of the background population. Medical history and CT-derived aortic morphology were collected. For the dependent outcome ACAS-AA, potential independent risk factors were identified by univariate logistic regression and confirmed in multivariate logistic regression. As post-dissection tubular ascending aortic diameter is prone to expand, this factor was not included in the first model. The individual calculated adjusted odds ratios were then used in ROC-curve analysis to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the model. To test the influence of post-ACAS-AA tubular ascending aortic diameter, this was added to the model. Results: The following risk factors were identified as independent risk factors for ACAS-AA in multivariate analysis: bicuspid aortic valve (OR 20.41, p = 0.03), renal insufficiency (OR 2.9, p

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0270585

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270585

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