Using patient biomarker time series to determine mortality risk in hospitalised COVID-19 patients: A comparative analysis across two New York hospitals
Ben Lambert,
Isaac J Stopard,
Amir Momeni-Boroujeni,
Rachelle Mendoza and
Alejandro Zuretti
PLOS ONE, 2022, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-15
Abstract:
A large range of prognostic models for determining the risk of COVID-19 patient mortality exist, but these typically restrict the set of biomarkers considered to measurements available at patient admission. Additionally, many of these models are trained and tested on patient cohorts from a single hospital, raising questions about the generalisability of results. We used a Bayesian Markov model to analyse time series data of biomarker measurements taken throughout the duration of a COVID-19 patient’s hospitalisation for n = 1540 patients from two hospitals in New York: State University of New York (SUNY) Downstate Health Sciences University and Maimonides Medical Center. Our main focus was to quantify the mortality risk associated with both static (e.g. demographic and patient history variables) and dynamic factors (e.g. changes in biomarkers) throughout hospitalisation, by so doing, to explain the observed patterns of mortality. By using our model to make predictions across the hospitals, we assessed how predictive factors generalised between the two cohorts. The individual dynamics of the measurements and their associated mortality risk were remarkably consistent across the hospitals. The model accuracy in predicting patient outcome (death or discharge) was 72.3% (predicting SUNY; posterior median accuracy) and 71.3% (predicting Maimonides) respectively. Model sensitivity was higher for detecting patients who would go on to be discharged (78.7%) versus those who died (61.8%). Our results indicate the utility of including dynamic clinical measurements when assessing patient mortality risk but also highlight the difficulty of identifying high risk patients.
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0272442 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 72442&type=printable (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0272442
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272442
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().