CALMS: Modelling the long-term health and economic impact of Covid-19 using agent-based simulation

Kate Mintram, Anastasia Anagnostou, Nana Anokye, Edward Okine, Derek Groen, Arindam Saha, Nura Abubakar, Tasin Islam, Habiba Daroge, Maziar Ghorbani, Yani Xue and Simon J E Taylor

PLOS ONE, 2022, vol. 17, issue 8, 1-19

Abstract: We present our agent-based CoronAvirus Lifelong Modelling and Simulation (CALMS) model that aspires to predict the lifelong impacts of Covid-19 on the health and economy of a population. CALMS considers individual characteristics as well as comorbidities in calculating the risk of infection and severe disease. We conduct two sets of experiments aiming at demonstrating the validity and capabilities of CALMS. We run simulations retrospectively and validate the model outputs against hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities in a UK population for the period between March and September 2020. We then run simulations for the lifetime of the cohort applying a variety of targeted intervention strategies and compare their effectiveness against the baseline scenario where no intervention is applied. Four scenarios are simulated with targeted vaccination programmes and periodic lockdowns. Vaccinations are targeted first at individuals based on their age and second at vulnerable individuals based on their health status. Periodic lockdowns, triggered by hospitalisations, are tested with and without vaccination programme in place. Our results demonstrate that periodic lockdowns achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 6-8% compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £173 million per 1,000 people and targeted vaccination programmes achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 89-90%, compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £51,924 per 1,000 people. We conclude that periodic lockdowns alone are ineffective at reducing health-related outputs over the long-term and that vaccination programmes which target only the clinically vulnerable are sufficient in providing healthcare protection for the population as a whole.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0272664 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 72664&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0272664

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272664

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().