Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico

Pablo Carlos López Vázquez, Gilberto Sánchez González, Jorge Martínez Ortega and Renato Salomón Arroyo Duarte

PLOS ONE, 2022, vol. 17, issue 9, 1-18

Abstract: In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0275216

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275216

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