Epidemic efficacy of Covid-19 vaccination against Omicron: An innovative approach using enhanced residual recurrent neural network

Rakesh Kumar, Meenu Gupta, Aman Agarwal, Anustup Mukherjee and Sardar M N Islam

PLOS ONE, 2023, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19 has engulfed the entire world since the end of 2019, causing tremendous loss of lives. It has also taken a toll on the healthcare sector due to the inability to accurately predict the spread of disease as the arrangements for the essential supply of medical items largely depend on prior predictions. The objective of the study is to train a reliable model for predicting the spread of Coronavirus. The prediction capabilities of various powerful models such as the Autoregression Model (AR), Global Autoregression (GAR), Stacked-LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Facebook Prophet (FBProphet), and Residual Recurrent Neural Network (Res-RNN) were taken into consideration for predicting COVID-19 using the historical data of daily confirmed cases along with Twitter data. The COVID-19 prediction results attained from these models were not up to the mark. To enhance the prediction results, a novel model is proposed that utilizes the power of Res-RNN with some modifications. Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and LSTM units are also introduced in the model to handle the long-term dependencies. Neural Networks being data-hungry, a merged layer was added before the linear layer to combine tweet volume as additional features to reach data augmentation. The residual links are used to handle the overfitting problem. The proposed model RNN Convolutional Residual Network (RNNCON-Res) showcases dominating capability in country-level prediction 20 days ahead with respect to existing State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) methods. Sufficient experimentation was performed to analyze the prediction capability of different models. It was found that the proposed model RNNCON-Res has achieved 91% accuracy, which is better than all other existing models.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0280026

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280026

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