A tree based eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model to forecast the annual rice production in Bangladesh

Mst Noorunnahar, Arman Hossain Chowdhury and Farhana Arefeen Mila

PLOS ONE, 2023, vol. 18, issue 3, 1-15

Abstract: In this study, we attempt to anticipate annual rice production in Bangladesh (1961–2020) using both the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) methods and compare their respective performances. On the basis of the lowest Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) values, a significant ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model with drift was chosen based on the findings. The drift parameter value shows that the production of rice positively trends upward. Thus, the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model with drift was found to be significant. On the other hand, the XGBoost model for time series data was developed by changing the tunning parameters frequently with the greatest result. The four prominent error measures, such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean percentage error (MPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), were used to assess the predictive performance of each model. We found that the error measures of the XGBoost model in the test set were comparatively lower than those of the ARIMA model. Comparatively, the MAPE value of the test set of the XGBoost model (5.38%) was lower than that of the ARIMA model (7.23%), indicating that XGBoost performs better than ARIMA at predicting the annual rice production in Bangladesh. Hence, the XGBoost model performs better than the ARIMA model in predicting the annual rice production in Bangladesh. Therefore, based on the better performance, the study forecasted the annual rice production for the next 10 years using the XGBoost model. According to our predictions, the annual rice production in Bangladesh will vary from 57,850,318 tons in 2021 to 82,256,944 tons in 2030. The forecast indicated that the amount of rice produced annually in Bangladesh will increase in the years to come.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0283452 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 83452&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0283452

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283452

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().