Testing three seismic hazard models for Italy via multi-site observations

Iunio Iervolino, Eugenio Chioccarelli and Pasquale Cito

PLOS ONE, 2023, vol. 18, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is widely employed worldwide as the rational way to quantify the uncertainty associated to earthquake occurrence and effects. When PSHA is carried out for a whole country, its results are typically expressed in the form of maps of ground motion intensities that all have the same exceedance return period. Classical PSHA relies on data that continuously increase due to instrumental seismic monitoring, and on models that continuously evolve with the knowledge on each of its many aspects. Therefore, it can happen that different, equally legitimate, hazard maps for the same region can show apparently irreconcilable differences, sparking public debate. This situation is currently ongoing in Italy, where the process of governmental enforcement of a new hazard map is delayed. The discussion is complicated by the fact that the events of interest to hazard assessment are intentionally rare at any of the sites the maps refer to, thus impeding empirical validation at any specific site. The presented study, pursuing a regional approach instead, overcoming the issues of site specific PSHA validation, evaluated three different authoritative PSHA studies for Italy. Formal tests were performed directly testing the output of PSHA, that is probabilistic predictions, against the observed ground shaking exceedance frequencies, obtained from about fifty years of continuous monitoring of seismic activities across the country. The bulk of analyses reveals that, apparently alternative hazard maps are, in fact, hardly distinguishable in the light of observations.

Date: 2023
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0284909 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 84909&type=printable (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0284909

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284909

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().