Demand forecasting of cold-chain logistics of aquatic products in China under the background of the Covid-19 post-epidemic era

Shuai Liu, Le Chang and Lin Wang

PLOS ONE, 2023, vol. 18, issue 11, 1-18

Abstract: In the background of the post-epidemic era, the consumption demand and market scale of cold chain logistics in China are expanding, but there is still an obvious gap with developed countries. To complete the balance between the supply and demand for aquatic products and the rational allocation of logistics resources and promote the rapid development trend of aquatic product cold chain logistics, it is particularly important to forecast and analyze the demand for aquatic product cold chain logistics. This article selects six main factors that affect the demand for aquatic products in cold chain logistics, uses the traditional grey model and the grey-BP neural network model to simulate and predict the demand for aquatic products in cold chain logistics in China from 2012 to 2021, and compares and analyzes the simulation results. Generally speaking, the demand for aquatic products from Chinese residents is on the rise. In the simulation prediction process, the prediction error of the grey-BP neural network is reduced compared to the traditional grey model, and the processing ability of the nonlinear system is ideal. The results show that the grey-BP neural network model is an effective method to predict the demand for cold chain logistics of aquatic products. Finally, suggestions are made on the future development of aquatic cold chain logistics in the post-epidemic era from the economic, social, and environmental aspects, which provide valuable decision-making reference for the development of marine aquaculture enterprises and cold chain logistics industry.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0287030

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287030

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