Current and future costs of cancer attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity in Brazil

Ronaldo Corrêa Ferreira da Silva, Thainá Alves Malhão, Leandro F M Rezende, Rafael da Silva Barbosa, Arthur Orlando Correa Schilithz, Luciana Grucci Maya Moreira, Paula Aballo Nunes Machado, Fabio Fortunato Brasil de Carvalho and Maria Eduarda Leão Diogenes

PLOS ONE, 2023, vol. 18, issue 7, 1-13

Abstract: Objectives: Cancer is an increasing cause of death and disability in Brazil and a pivotal vector for growing health expenditures. Lower levels of leisure-time physical activity are associated with a higher risk of some cancers. We quantified the current and future cancer direct healthcare costs attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity in Brazil. Methods: We performed a macrosimulation model using: (i) relative risks from meta-analyses; (ii) prevalence data of insufficient leisure-time physical activity in adults ≥ 20 years; (iii) national registries of healthcare costs of adults ≥ 30 years with cancer. We used simple linear regression to predict cancer costs as a function of time. We calculated the potential impact fraction (PIF) considering the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure and other counterfactual scenarios of physical activity prevalence. Results: We projected that the costs of breast, endometrial, and colorectal cancers may increase from US$ 630 million in 2018 to US$ 1.1 billion in 2030 and US$ 1.5 billion in 2040. The costs of cancer attributable to insufficient leisure-time physical activity may increase from US$ 43 million in 2018 to US$ 64 million in 2030. Increasing leisure-time physical activity could potentially save US$ 3 million to US$ 8.9 million in 2040 by reducing the prevalence of insufficient leisure-time physical activity in 2030. Conclusion: Our results may be helpful to guide cancer prevention policies and programs in Brazil.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0287224

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287224

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