Estimating the effect of international crude oil prices on RMB exchange rate with two-way fluctuation spillover

Yuan Li and Jin Chen

PLOS ONE, 2023, vol. 18, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: International crude oil prices has become one of the important factors that affect exchange rate fluctuation. By combining TVP-VAR model and DY time-varying spillover index, this paper measures the two-way fluctuation spillover effect between international crude oil prices and RMB exchange rate from 2011 to 2022. The research results show that: (1) There are obvious time-varying characteristics among international crude oil prices, onshore RMB exchange rate and offshore RMB exchange rate, and they are strengthened when major events occur at home and abroad; (2) The spillover and absorption level among international crude oil prices, onshore RMB exchange rate and offshore RMB exchange rate is relatively limited; (3) After the “exchange rate reform on August 11”, the market participation of RMB exchange rate has increased year by year, and the offshore RMB is mainly net spillover, while the onshore RMB is mainly reflected as a recipient; (4) The offshore RMB exchange rate has a driving effect on the onshore RMB exchange rate. Based on this, it is necessary to orderly promote the development and utilization of new energy, actively promote the market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate, play the leading role of offshore market, and accelerate the construction of crude oil-RMB settlement system.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0292615

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292615

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