Do high house prices promote the development of China’s real economy? Empirical evidence based on the decomposition of real estate price
Wei Fan,
Yun He,
Liang Hao and
Fan Wu
PLOS ONE, 2024, vol. 19, issue 1, 1-25
Abstract:
Moderate rising of house prices are beneficial to the economic development. However, over high house prices worsen the economic distortions and thus hinder the development of the real economy. We use the stochastic frontier models to calculate the fundamental value in the housing in Chinese large and medium cities, and then obtain indexes which could measure the house prices’ deviations from the fundamental value. With the macroeconomic data in the city-level, this paper empirically investigates the effects of the house prices’ deviations on macro-economic variables like consumption, investment and output. The study reveals that the housing bubble exists in most Chinese cities, and first-tier cities fare the worst. House prices over the fundamental value, which could increase the scale of real estate investment, bring adverse impacts on GDP, as it causes declining civilian consumption and discourages real economy’s investment and production. The encouragement and the discouragement on macroeconomy caused by house prices’ deviation from its basic value take turns to play a key role in the process of China’ eco-nomic growth. In the early stage of China’s economic growth, the encouragement effect predominates. As urbanization and industrialization gradually upgrade to a higher level, the discouragement effect takes charge.
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0295311 (text/html)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id= ... 95311&type=printable (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0295311
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295311
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in PLOS ONE from Public Library of Science
Bibliographic data for series maintained by plosone ().