Probabilistic causal reasoning under time pressure

Ivar R Kolvoort, Elizabeth L Fisher, Robert van Rooij, Katrin Schulz and Leendert van Maanen

PLOS ONE, 2024, vol. 19, issue 4, 1-31

Abstract: While causal reasoning is a core facet of our cognitive abilities, its time-course has not received proper attention. As the duration of reasoning might prove crucial in understanding the underlying cognitive processes, we asked participants in two experiments to make probabilistic causal inferences while manipulating time pressure. We found that participants are less accurate under time pressure, a speed-accuracy-tradeoff, and that they respond more conservatively. Surprisingly, two other persistent reasoning errors—Markov violations and failures to explain away—appeared insensitive to time pressure. These observations seem related to confidence: Conservative inferences were associated with low confidence, whereas Markov violations and failures to explain were not. These findings challenge existing theories that predict an association between time pressure and all causal reasoning errors including conservatism. Our findings suggest that these errors should not be attributed to a single cognitive mechanism and emphasize that causal judgements are the result of multiple processes.

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0297011

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297011

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