Smoking and alcoholism dual addiction dissemination model analysis with optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness

Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu, Belela Samuel Kotola and Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh

PLOS ONE, 2024, vol. 19, issue 10, 1-43

Abstract: A mathematical model of the dual addiction dissemination dynamics of alcoholism and smoking was created and examined in this work, along with cost-effectiveness and optimal control techniques. The primary goal of the research is to determine which cost-efficient management techniques are most helpful in lowering the problem of dual addiction dispersion in the community. The smoking addiction sub-model, the alcohol addiction sub-model, and the dual addiction model between alcohol and smoking were all calculated, and their stability was examined in this study. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed using the next-generation operator technique. When the model’s effective reproduction number is smaller than one, the backward bifurcation phenomenon is seen. Six time-dependent control measures are taken into consideration when formulating and analyzing the optimum control issue. Utilizing and applying the parameter values and using MATLAB ode45 solver we performed numerical simulations for both the dual addiction model and its optimal control problem. Furthermore, using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), we carried out the cost-effectiveness analyses. The cost-effectiveness analysis shows that implementing all the protection (education) control measures simultaneously (i.e., implementing Strategy A) is the most cost-effective strategy. Finally, we recommend that the public health stakeholders must put great effort into the implementation of Strategy A to reduce the smoking and alcoholism dual addiction dissemination problem in the community.

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0309356

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309356

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