Energy consumption forecasting for oil and coal in China based on hybrid deep learning

Jiao He, Yuhang Li, Xiaochuan Xu and Di Wu

PLOS ONE, 2025, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: The consumption forecasting of oil and coal can help governments optimize and adjust energy strategies to ensure energy security in China. However, such forecasting is extremely challenging because it is influenced by many complex and uncertain factors. To fill this gap, we propose a hybrid deep learning approach for consumption forecasting of oil and coal in China. It consists of three parts, i.e., feature engineering, model building, and model integration. First, feature engineering is to distinguish the different correlations between targeted indicators and various features. Second, model building is to build five typical deep learning models with different characteristics to forecast targeted indicators. Third, model integration is to ensemble the built five models with a tailored, self-adaptive weighting strategy. As such, our approach enjoys all the merits of the five deep learning models (they have different learning structures and temporal constraints to diversify them for ensembling), making it able to comprehensively capture all the characteristics of different indicators to achieve accurate forecasting. To evaluate the proposed approach, we collected the real 880 pieces of data with 39 factors regarding the energy consumption of China ranging from 1999 to 2021. By conducting extensive experiments on the collected datasets, we have identified the optimal features for four targeted indicators (i.e., import of oil, production of oil, import of coal, and production of coal), respectively. Besides, we have demonstrated that our approach is significantly more accurate than the state-of-the-art forecasting competitors.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0313856

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0313856

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