Modelling epidemiological dynamics with pseudo-recovery via fractional-order derivative operator and optimal control measures

Samson Olaniyi, Furaha M Chuma, Ramoshweu S Lebelo, Richard C Ogbonna and Sulaimon F Abimbade

PLOS ONE, 2025, vol. 20, issue 1, 1-24

Abstract: In this study, a new deterministic mathematical model based on fractional-order derivative operator that describes the pseudo-recovery dynamics of an epidemiological process is developed. Fractional-order derivative of Caputo type is used to examine the effect of memory in the spread process of infectious diseases with pseudo-recovery. The well-posedness of the model is qualitatively investigated through Banach fixed point theory technique. The spread of the disease in the population is measured by analysing the basic reproduction of the model with respect to its parameters through the sensitivity analysis. Consequently, the analysis is extended to the fractional optimal control model where time-dependent preventive strategy and treatment measure are characterized by Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The resulting Caputo fractional-order optimality system is simulated to understand how both preventive and treatment controls affect the pseudo-recovery dynamics of infectious diseases in the presence of memory. Graphical illustrations are shown to corroborate the qualitative results, and to demonstrate the importance of memory effects in infectious disease modelling. It is shown that time-dependent preventive strategy and treatment measure in the presence of memory engenders significant reduction in the spread of the disease when compared with memoryless situation.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0318080

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0318080

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