Analysis of the deployment scale and investment prediction of China’s coal power carbon capture technology under typical scenarios before 2050

Jianfang Zong, Qing Ding, Haitao Wang, Xinyu Cao and Jie Wei

PLOS ONE, 2025, vol. 20, issue 5, 1-22

Abstract: This study evaluates the potential for green and low-carbon transformation in China’s coal-fired power sector by analyzing seven representative scenarios, including projections for total installed capacity, power generation, and coal-fired power metrics before 2050. Carbon emissions are estimated using a conversion factor of 0.899 kg CO₂ per kWh, while deployment scales and emission reduction potentials for carbon capture technologies are calculated based on IEA (2022) assumptions for low (30%) and high (90%) installation ratios. The study further quantifies installation and operational costs, investment requirements by 2050, and annual investments from 2030 to 2050 under both scenarios. Results demonstrate that high-proportion carbon capture deployment can significantly accelerate the sector’s low-carbon transition, fostering an emerging industry worth over 20 trillion yuan and delivering dual benefits of emissions reduction and economic growth. Policy support for large-scale implementation is critical. By pioneering multi-scenario modelling, this research systematically projects China’s coal-fired CCUS deployment needs under 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, integrating IEA frameworks with domestic policy scenarios to assess industrial-scale potential and inform decision-making. This work provides the first systematic integration of IEA projections with China-specific policy scenarios, offering policymakers a framework to balance climate targets with energy transition realities.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0324240

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324240

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