A hybrid AI model integrating BKA-VMD and deep neural networks for industrial power load prediction

Yin Luo, Chaofan Guo, Minfeng Pan and Hong Zhou

PLOS ONE, 2025, vol. 20, issue 8, 1-22

Abstract: Accurate power load prediction is crucial for optimizing energy consumption and enhancing efficiency in industrial environments. However, the highly nonlinear and non-stationary nature of power load time series presents significant challenges. To address this, we propose a novel hybrid deep learning model that integrates optimized data decomposition with advanced sequence modeling to enhance feature extraction and temporal pattern learning. Specifically, Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) optimized by the Black-Winged Kite Algorithm (BKA) extracts intrinsic mode functions, reducing noise and improving signal representation. The decomposed signals are processed by a hybrid neural network combining a One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1DCNN) for local feature extraction, a Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network (BiTCN) for long-range temporal dependencies, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) for sequential pattern learning, and an attention mechanism to emphasize critical features. Extensive experiments, including comparisons with state-of-the-art models and ablation studies, validate our approach across three diverse industrial datasets. The results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The ablation study highlights the critical roles of the attention mechanism and the BiTCN-BiGRU combination in capturing complex temporal dependencies. These findings underscore the model’s robustness and adaptability for power load forecasting. Future research should focus on enhancing generalization and validating applicability across diverse industrial settings.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0329630

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0329630

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