Enhanced tourist flow forecasting in Aosta Valley: A novel ensemble AI framework with adaptive temporal dynamics

Marco Alderighi, Tiziana Ciano, Massimiliano Ferrara and Domenico Santoro

PLOS ONE, 2026, vol. 21, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: Despite significant advances in tourism forecasting methods, current approaches suffer from critical limitations including static ensemble weighting mechanisms that fail to adapt to changing environmental conditions, insufficient integration of multi-source data streams, and limited robustness against sudden demand shifts caused by extreme weather or unexpected events. This study presents an innovative ensemble artificial intelligence framework for monitoring and forecasting tourist flows in the Aosta Valley region, Italy, utilizing a large-scale dataset of over 41 million vehicle passages collected from 14 strategically positioned sensor portals. Our novel approach integrates multiple machine learning algorithms through an adaptive ensemble mechanism that dynamically weights individual predictors based on temporal patterns, seasonal variations, and real-time performance metrics. We introduce the Adaptive Temporal Ensemble (ATE) algorithm, combining eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, and Long Short-Term Memory networks with a novel meta-learning layer. The key novelty lies in the dynamic weight adjustment mechanism that responds to contextual features including recent model performance, seasonal indicators, meteorological conditions, and traffic flow characteristics, enabling the system to automatically select the most appropriate predictor for each forecasting scenario. The system processes traffic data from highway and valley road sensors, integrated with comprehensive meteorological datasets and calendar information, providing real-time monitoring and accurate forecasting capabilities. We present a formal mathematical framework, including the Ensemble Convergence Theorem, which guarantees optimal performance bounds under specific conditions. Experimental validation demonstrates superior forecasting accuracy with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) improvements of 23.7% and Mean Squared Error (MSE) reductions of 31.2% compared to individual models. The ensemble framework achieves R2 scores exceeding 0.94 for short-term predictions and maintains robustness across different seasonal patterns and extreme weather conditions. These improvements translate directly into practical benefits for destination management organizations, including enhanced resource allocation efficiency, improved traffic congestion management, and more accurate capacity planning for tourism infrastructure. This research contributes significantly to intelligent tourism management systems and provides a scalable framework applicable to other regions with similar traffic monitoring infrastructure.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0336749

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0336749

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