Data fusion-based traffic prediction and software decision support for recreational suburban roads

Shahriar Afandizadeh, Saeid Abdolahi and Hamid Mirzahossein

PLOS ONE, 2026, vol. 21, issue 5, 1-31

Abstract: Predicting traffic flow on mountainous suburban roads is challenging due to highly variable environmental, temporal, and traffic-related conditions. This study focuses on Kandovan Road, a critical route with complex behavioral patterns influenced by weather conditions, calendar events, and road-specific characteristics. To improve forecasting accuracy, eight machine learning and deep learning models were implemented, including Deep LSTM, Random Forest Regressor, XGBRegressor, Transformer, ST-ResNet, Conv-LSTM, Bidirectional LSTM, and LSTM-GAN. The models were trained and evaluated using traffic, weather, and event datasets from 2017 to 2023, with performance measured through MAE, RMSE, MSE, and MAPE metrics. Among the evaluated models, the Random Forest Regressor achieved the highest accuracy with an R² score of 0.88 and a low average error. This result demonstrates its strong ability to model non-linear and dynamic traffic patterns. The results indicate that integrating diverse data sources significantly enhances traffic prediction performance on mountain roads. Additionally, a dedicated traffic forecasting software system was developed to visualize real-time predictions and provide an operational decision-support tool for traffic authorities. The outcomes of this work support more efficient traffic management, improved road safety, and sustainable transportation planning in challenging terrains.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0343224

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0343224

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