Physically aggressive conspiracy believers often faced various psycho-social problems: Findings from a longitudinal population-based study

Peter G van der Velden, Arno van Dam, Jan-Jaap van Eerten and Koen P Grootens

PLOS ONE, 2026, vol. 21, issue 9, 1-18

Abstract: Objectives: Psychosocial problems are positively associated with beliefs in conspiracy theories and physically aggressive behavior that are mutually related. Yet, it is unknown if adults with (a higher number of) these problems are more often aggressive conspiracy believers, non-physically aggressive conspiracy believers and aggressive non-believers than non-physically aggressive non-believers. The present study aims to fill this gap of knowledge. Methods: Data was extracted from surveys conducted with the Dutch population-based LISS panel assessing six pre-existing psychosocial problems (severe anxiety and depression symptoms, lack of support, exposure to traumatic and stressful life events, financial problems, and low levels of life satisfaction). Furthermore, data was extracted from a survey 5–7 months later assessing conspiracy beliefs and physical aggression. Based on the data of the last survey we distinguished non-physically aggressive non-conspiracy believers, non-physically aggressive believers, physically aggressive non-believers and physically aggressive believers (Ntotal = 1,385). Series of multivariate multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted with group-membership as dependent variable and (the number of) psychosocial problems as predictors. Results: Results showed that respondents with pre-existing psychosocial problems were much more often aggressive non-conspiracy believers and aggressive conspiracy believers than non-physically aggressive non-believers. Analyses among the physically aggressive believers and non-physically aggressive non-believers revealed that about 64% of the respondents with four or more problems were physically aggressive believers compared to 4% without these problems. The assessed (number of) psychosocial problems did not distinguish non-physically aggressive non-believers and non-physically aggressive believers. Using different cut-offs scores to identify the four groups hardly changed found patterns. Conclusions: Findings indicate that the higher the number of pre-existing psychosocial problems the more adults are prone to be physically aggressive conspiracy believers and, to a lesser extent, physically aggressive non-believers. Results suggest that policies and interventions to reduce violence and the adoption and dispersion of conspiracy beliefs should in any case, besides other potential measures, be aimed at preventing and reducing pre-existing psychosocial problems.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0353935

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0353935

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