Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004–2025)

Shuming Cui, Zhenxing Yang, Hemu Du, Rongheng Liu and Shijie Liu

PLOS ONE, 2026, vol. 21, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: NBA offenses increasingly reflect a “space-and-pace” approach, yet it remains unclear whether recent tempo changes primarily reflect long-run strategic adaptation or the 2018–19 14-second offensive-rebound shot-clock reset. We combined team-season metrics with shot-location data from the NBA Stats API across 21 seasons (2004–05–2024–25; > 420,000 field-goal attempts). Analyses included spatial heatmaps and a Spatial Allocation Index (SAI), segmented regression for league Pace, and multivariate OLS models for Offensive Rating (ORtg). Heatmaps showed a substantial reduction in mid-range attempts and greater concentration at the rim and beyond the arc; SAI increased from 58.98% to 69.99%. Segmented regression identified a marked change around 2018–19, with an immediate increase in Pace and a post-2018 trend that flattened and became slightly negative (pre-2018 slope ≈ 0.44 possessions/season; post-2018 net slope ≈ −0.26). Turnover percentage declined despite higher tempo (p

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:plo:pone00:0358360

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0358360

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