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Testing the Relative PPP Hypothesis in CEE States – Does the ‘PPP Puzzle’ Still Keep up?

Vaclav Zdarek ()
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Vaclav Zdarek: ŠKODA AUTO University

ACTA VSFS, 2012, vol. 6, issue 2, 108-135

Abstract: This paper is focused on testing the relative version of the purchasing power parity (PPP). It tries to shed light on this so called “PPP puzzle” for a set of transition countries – twelve new EU Member States. Since results of similar studies in the literature have been ambiguous, a set of econometrics methods is employed: univariate (standard) tests (URT s), robust versions of URT s including high-powered ones – the non-linear Kapetanios, Sollis (non-linear adjustments) and Bierens’ test (non-linearities in trends). Three definitions of exchange rates (bilateral currency pairs) are utilised: for the euro, the US dollar and the CPI-based real effective exchange rate (REER). Due to limitations as regards to the availability of the data for our set of countries, quarterly data for the period 1995:Q1–2011:Q1 are used. The results of conventional linear do not provide a crystal-clear answer, more robust URT s at least partially do in favour of the PPP hypothesis. In addition, once the source of non-linearities has been controlled for (structural changes), the results show stochastic stationarity of all three series.

Keywords: real exchange rates; unit root tests; exponential smooth transition autoregressive model; new EU Member States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E51 F21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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