Can pro-natalist policy be effective?

Marek Loužek

Prague Economic Papers, 2003, vol. 2003, issue 3, 265-281

Abstract: The article is concerned with pro-natalist policies, examining empirically their effectiveness. There are proposed four hypotheses: continuous decline of the birth rate; adaptive model; natural-rate hypothesis; crowding-out hypothesis. Nine countries are tested: Germany, Italy, Sweden and France before the World War II and Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany during the communism. Best empirical results arise from the crowding-out hypothesis. Good results follow from the adaptive model and the continuous decline of birth rates. The natural-rate hypothesis has small explanatory power. Pro-natalist policies, according to this study, are not too effective.

Keywords: population policy; pro-natalist sentiment; static model; dynamic model; constant decline in the birth rate; adaptive model; natural-rate hypothesis; crowding-out hypothesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.218

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