Fiscal Deficits and Inflation in the Transition Countries

Vratislav Izák

Prague Economic Papers, 2005, vol. 2005, issue 1, 3-16

Abstract: The fiscal deficits in the majority of transition countries continue to deteriorate and pose risks for the sustainability of public finances in the longer time horizon. Due to short time span and data limitation (1993 - 2003) I concentrate on the short-run dynamics using fixed-effect model with panel data. I found a very small effects of fiscal deficits on inflation for the group of Visegrad countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) with slightly better results after the exclusion of Poland. The perspective of adopting the euro in the horizon of several years has prevented until now the use of surprise inflation to reduce the real burden of servicing the increasing public debt. In the periods of social conflicts which are likely to characterize times of delayed fiscal reforms the temptation to resort to seignorage may become more stronger than nowadays.

Keywords: transition countries; inflation; fiscal deficits (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E60 E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.249

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