The Link Between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the US Dollar Exchange Rate

Filip Novotný

Prague Economic Papers, 2012, vol. 2012, issue 2, 220-232

Abstract: Growth in the intensity of the inverse relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and the Brent crude oil price has been observed over the last decade. This may be linked, among other things, to the growing role of commodities as an alternative investment instrument at times of excess liquidity and low interest rates on global markets. This analysis examines monthly data from January 1982 to September 2010. Since 2002 the direction of the relationship in the Granger causality sense has been from the dollar exchange rate to the oil price. A weakening of the dollar of 1% causes the Brent oil price to rise by 2.1%. The contrary movements in the Brent oil price and the dollar exchange rate are a factor dampening the impact of sharp fluctuations in the dollar price of oil on "non-dollar" economies, including the Czech Republic. This dampening effect was clearly visible in the period of sharp oil price growth in 2007 and 2008.

Keywords: interest rates; commodity prices; excess liquidity; exchange rate movements; financial markets; speculative demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.420

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