Interest Rate Uncertainty and Macroeconomics in Turkey
Pelin Öge Güney
Prague Economic Papers, 2023, vol. 2023, issue 2, 184-204
Abstract:
Uncertainty about monetary policy associated with uncertainty in interest rate is an important determinant of economic decisions. Due to the dominant position of the US economy on global financial markets, in addition to countries' own uncertainties, uncertainty related to the monetary policy of the USA may have an impact on other economies. In this study, we investigated the impact of interest rate uncertainties for different maturities on industrial production, inflation, unemployment and exchange rate. We used the impulse response functions based on the vector error correction model (VECM). We also conducted the Granger causality test to analyse the causality. We examined the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on the mentioned variables of Turkey. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in long-term interest rates increases unemployment and inflation rates. Although we find that uncertainty in interest rate reduces growth of industrial production, we do not find a causal relationship between these variables. Finally, we show that a shock related to US monetary policy uncertainty tends to increase unemployment significantly, while reducing the growth of production.
Keywords: uncertainty; interest rate; VAR model; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.826.html (text/html)
http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.826.pdf (application/pdf)
free of charge
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2023:y:2023:i:2:id:826:p:184-204
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
http://pep.vse.cz
DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.826
Access Statistics for this article
Prague Economic Papers is currently edited by Klára Pavlová
More articles in Prague Economic Papers from Prague University of Economics and Business Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stanislav Vojir ().