Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l’engorgement

Magali Jaoul-Grammare

Économie et Prévision, 2004, vol. 166, issue 5, 39-57

Abstract: [fre] In many countries , the higher education and economic systems have undergone periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation or recession . A relationship between these two indicators has therefore been assumed . Diebolt (2001 ) believes that the educational movements are linked to evolutions on the labour market . According to his “ glutting ” theory , students ’ career choices depend on expected earnings levels and the availability of places in the professional sector concerned . In this study we propose an econometric test of this theory in the case of Germany (1820-1941 ), using co-integration and causality . The relationships that emerge seem to confirm this theory : we find substitutability between university courses and the various professions , on the one hand , and , on the other , complementarity between the numbers of students in the universities and of posts in the corresponding professions . [eng] In many countries , the higher education and economic systems have undergone periods of expansion followed by periods of stagnation or recession . A relationship between these two indicators has therefore been assumed . Diebolt (2001 ) believes that the educational movements are linked to evolutions on the labour market . According to his “ glutting ” theory , students ’ career choices depend on expected earnings levels and the availability of places in the professional sector concerned . In this study we propose an econometric test of this theory in the case of Germany (1820-1941 ), using co-integration and causality . The relationships that emerge seem to confirm this theory : we find substitutability between university courses and the various professions , on the one hand , and , on the other , complementarity between the numbers of students in the universities and of posts in the corresponding professions .

Date: 2004
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7380
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Journal Article: Enseignement supérieur et marchés du travail. Analyse économétrique de la théorie de l'engorgement (2004)
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