Structure Change and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law in the 1990s

Mark Knell

Revue d'Économie Industrielle, 2004, vol. 105, issue 1, 71-83

Abstract: [fre] Le papier étudie et réévalue la loi de Kaldor-Verdoorn durant les années 90 dans dix pays européens, les États-Unis, le Japon et sept pays d'Europe centrale candidats à l'adhésion. La prémisse de base est que la loi reste valide et solide durant cette période. Bien que la variante kaldorienne de la loi se soit affaiblie au cours de la seconde moitié du 20eme siècle, principalement à cause de la faible, voire négative, croissance de l'emploi, les données apparaissent satisfaisantes lorsque l'analyse est en coupe interindustrielle au sein d'un pays. Bien que ces estimations ne retiennent pas les spillovers que Kaldor prenait en compte dans son analyse, elles tiennent compte des effets pays que Verdoorn soulignait dans son étude originelle. Le papier considère les transformations dans la structure de la production manufacturière en estimant un coefficient de Verdoorn en coupe interindustrielle intranationale. [eng] This paper examines and reassesses the Kaldor-Verdoorn law during the 1990s in ten countries of the European Union (EU), the United States and Japan as well as seven Eastern European countries that have applied for membership in the EU. Its basic premise is that the Kaldor-Verdoorn law continues to be strong and robust in the 1990s. Although Kaldor's variant of the law has weakened through the last half of the twentieth century, mainly because of low and even negative employment growth in manufacturing, the evidence appears strong when the analysis focuses on a cross-section of industries in a given country. While these estimations lose some of the spillover effects that Kaldor captured in his original analysis, they capture certain country effects that Verdoorn emphasized in his original analysis. The paper finally considers changes in the structure of manufacturing production by estimating the Verdoorn coefficient as a cross-section of countries in a given industry.

Date: 2004
Note: DOI:10.3406/rei.2004.3036
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