Le taux de change à long terme: les enseignements des modèles

Vivien Lévy-Garboua and Bruno Weymuller

Revue Économique, 1979, vol. 30, issue 4, 676-718

Abstract: [fre] Cette étude tente de rassembler les principaux canaux à travers lesquels on peut analyser les déterminants du taux de change à long terme. Les mécanismes monétaires sont d'abord introduits, qui aboutissent à la fixation du taux de change nominal. Les phénomènes réels, quant à eux, déterminent le taux de change réel. Ce dernier conditionne à la fois l'allocation de la demande entre les secteurs exposé et abrité, et la répartition des revenus entre salaires et profits. Un modèle de croissance équilibrée à deux secteurs permet d'étudier l'interaction entre ces deux aspects, et d'analyser les répercussions à long terme du « choc pétrolier ». [eng] The exchange rate in the long run : lessons from models. . This study brings together the main déterminants of the exchange rate in the long run. While the nominal exchange rate is mainly determined by monetary phenomena, the real exchange rate is the result of mecanisms affecting the demand and supply of final goods and factors. It conditions both the allocation of demand between thé traded goods and non-traded goods sectors, and the distribution between wages and profits. A two-sector balanced growth model enables to study the interaction of these two aspects, and to analyse the impact of changes in relative prices such as those which occured after the energy crisis of 1973.

Date: 1979
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1979.408481
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