Japan's Recent Experiences of Quantitative Economic Planning

Chikashi Moriguchi

Revue Économique, 1980, vol. 31, issue 5, 853-856

Abstract: [eng] Japan's recent experiences of quantitative economic planning. Chekashi Moriguchi. Japon has used macro-economic models to formulate medium-term economic projections since 1964. Thus the New Economic and Social Plan for 1979-1985 has set goals for real economic growth (5.7 % per year) and for the other major macro-economic quantifies. However, considerable discrepancies have been observed between the goals set and the results obtained, especially with the increasing instability of the international environment.. Given such a situation, should we continue to establish medium-term economic projections when such projections turn out to be mistaken, and when the private corporate sector shows remarkable flexibility in adapting itself spontaneously to changing conditions ? The fact is that the majority of the private business sector does insist, more than ever, upon having abundant economic information and internally coherent economic forecasts as an aid in setting up its own strategic options. In any case, we should be moving towards a broader, more flexible plan, allowing for the uncertainties of the international context and the international concurrency exchange rates. [fre] Le Japon utilise depuis 1964 des modèles macroéconomiques pour établir des projections à moyen terme. C'est ainsi que le Nouveau Plan Economique et Social de 1979-1985 a fixé des objectifs concernant la croissance (5,7 % p.a.) et les autres principales grandeurs macroéconomiques. Cependant les résultats observés s'écar­tent sensiblement des prévisions des modèles, depuis que s'est accrue l'instabilité de l'environnement international. Dans ces conditions, faut-il continuer à établir des projections économiques à moyen terme, alors qu'elles se révèlent erronées et que le secteur privé s'adapte spontanément aux situations nouvelles ? Il se trouve que précisément le secteur privé éprouve plus que jamais le besoin de disposer d'informations abondantes et de projections cohérentes, pour éclairer ses propres choix stratégiques. Cependant, il faudra sans doute évoluer vers un Plan plus flexible, faisant une plus large part aux aléas extérieurs et aux incerti­tudes sur les parités monétaires.

Date: 1980
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