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Des adaptations différenciées aux contraintes internationales: les enseignements d'un modèle

Michel Aglietta, André Orléan and Gilles Oudiz

Revue Économique, 1981, vol. 32, issue 4, 660-712

Abstract: [fre] plus ou moins intensif de l'accumulation du capital est décrit par l'intermédiaire du rapport que les progrès de productivité entretiennent avec l'investissement ou avec la croissance de la production industrielle.. Un modèle de simulation a été construit selon ces principes pour interpréter les évolutions différentes de l'Allemagne, de la France et de l'Angleterre à la suite de perturbations monétaires ou de politiques délibérées tendant à réévaluer leurs monnaies. Une analyse est faite des cercles vertueux et vicieux et les conditions nécessaires pour qu'une politique de monnaie forte puisse être durablement sou­tenue sans effets trop néfastes sur l'industrie, sont dégagées.. On montre en conclusion que les conséquences réelles des contraintes monétaires sont importantes et que les politiques globales, qu'elles soient monétaristes ou néo-keynésiennes, sont inadéquates pour faire face aux problèmes de compétitivité qui se posent. Des politiques d'offre sont de plus en plus indispensables, la poli­tique de change devant jouer un rôle d'accompagnement des transformations industrielles. [eng] National adjustments to international constraints : learning from a model. Michel Aglietta, André Ojrléan, Gilles Oudiz. During the seventies international monetary disorder and thé huge increuse inoil prices have widened the gap between the growth of R.E.C. countries. . The ability of national economies to face these new international constraints has proved to be quite uneven. The crucial differences lie in the way manufacturin industries have reacted and been able to adapt themselves.. In this paper the forces which determine the accumulation of capital in the medium term are analysed. The importance of the interaction between foreign trade prices, internal prices on the one hand and the quality of industrial specialization on the other hand, si stressed especially in so far as it explains how profits and investment in manufacturing industries depend on the relationships between these and the rest of the economy.. The intensity of accumulation is then formalised through the relationships between productivity growth and investment or production growth.. A semi-empirical simulation model, built along these theoretical lines, has been used to discuss the reactions of the French, German and English economies to exchange rate disturbancies. From these simulations follows a discussion of vicious and virtuous circles and the conditions, in term of structural parameters appearing in the models, under which such circles can take place.. The conclusion of this paper emphasizes the real consequences of monetary constraints and the inadequacy of global macroeconomic policy, either monefarist or post-keynesian, to solve the competitivity problems which industrial countries have to face-supply-side, politics appear more and more necessary, while exchange rate management should be used as a powerful toolhsustain industrial transformations.

Date: 1981
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1981.408614
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