Les prélèvements pétroliers et les déséquilibres macroéconomiques mondiaux: une analyse en terme de transferts

Jean-Claude Berthélemy

Revue Économique, 1982, vol. 33, issue 4, 695-723

Abstract: [fre] Cet article cherche à préciser, dans le cadre de la théorie des transferts, l'ampleur probable des effets du premier choc pétrolier sur l'activité économique mondiale, en distinguant l'OCDE, les PVD et l'OPEP. Il apparaît que les effets keynésiens du choc pétrolier ont sans doute joué un rôle décisif dans la récession qui a débuté en 1974 et s'est poursuivie en 1975. Par contre, la relative faiblesse de la croissance de 1975 à 1978 semble relever d'explications plus classiques que keynésiennes.. [ . [eng] Oil payments and the world macroeconomic . Disequilibria : a transfer theory analysis. Jean-Claude Berthélemy. Based on the transfer theory, this article discusses the size of the effects the first oil shock could have had on the economic activity, the world economy being disagregated in OECD, LDCs and OPEC. It seems that the keynesian effects of this shock played a major part in the 1974-1975 recession. However, the relatively low performances of the 1975-1978 years requires some classical, rather than keynesian, explanations.

Date: 1982
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408676
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